Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

436
FXUS61 KRNK 250801
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
401 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast updated.

Decreased rainfall amounts for this afternoon and evening, and
decreased rain chances for Sunday given the lack of deep
moisture entering the lower Mid-Atlantic. Confidence is
increasing on another round of rainfall during the middle of
next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1: A more active weather pattern is forecasted for today through
the middle of next week, with multiple cold fronts bringing
showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A more active weather pattern is forecasted for
today through the middle of next week, with multiple cold fronts
bringing showers and a few thunderstorms.

Keeping an eye on an approaching cold front that will trigger
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms for today. A few
showers will develop across the mountains during late morning,
but believe the more widespread activity will arrive during
early afternoon. Rain will spread from west to east across the
mountains, reaching the Piedmont during mid-afternoon into the
evening. Most rainfall will end during the evening, with only
lingering showers overnight as the cold front then passes across
the lower Mid-Atlantic. There is very limited energy to support
thunderstorm intensity, and severe thunderstorms are not
expected. Certainly, this system will not be a drought-buster
given the lack of deep moisture feeding in ahead of the cold
front. Feel confident that nearly all of the lower Mid- Atlantic
will receive some rainfall, but believe most locations will
receive around 0.25 inch or less. That stated, a few spots
across the Piedmont could receive up to an inch locally where
any thunderstorms developing around maximum daytime heating
linger for extended periods of time.

Decreased the rainfall chances for Sunday given dry air
entering from the northeast. May see a few showers develop along
the Blue Ridge due to upslope windflow, but rainfall amounts
will remain modest at best.

After a dry day on Monday, showers and a few thunderstorms
return on Tuesday afternoon as a warm front passes across the
region, followed by additional activity on Wednesday as a cold
front arrives. The severe thunderstorm threat appears limited on
Wednesday, but can`t be ruled out entirely due to the passage
overhead of a weak but negatively tilted upper level trough.
Given the track of the associated low pressure system,
confidence is increasing that a substantial portion of the lower
Mid-Atlantic may receive 0.25" of rain during the Tuesday to
Wednesday timeframe.

May see additional rounds of brief shower activity during the
second half of next week, however the supporting disturbances
appear weak, and confidence is therefore low as to when, where,
or even if rainfall will occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Benign VFR conditions will extend into the early afternoon.
Southwesterly flow will be bringing in Gulf moisture ahead of a
front, so clouds will fill in throughout the day, but ought to
stay above 3kft. Showers and an occasional thunderstorm will
cross the area this afternoon and evening, potentially reducing
vsby inside of any precipitation. Not expecting these storms to
be particularly strong, but wind gusts may occur in various
directions on short notice in the vicinity of any storm.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Sub-VFR conditions into Sunday morning, with improving
conditions Sunday afternoon. Winds on Sunday and Monday will
be from the NE and E as low pressure spins up over the
Carolinas.

Confidence continues to increase in additional showers and a few
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, in addition to the
potential for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...SH/VJ